KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 94%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
18,4K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
3.4% / 5.7%
Spread
2.3 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
18 dic 25, 01:00 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsPresident Trump grants clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell by midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
FutuurAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
PolymarketRegole
If Ghislaine Maxwell has been released from all forms of government custody and is free to move and act without government-imposed physical restrictions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:BBCNBCThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- For purposes of this Contract, the person is released from government custody when they are no longer subject to physical detention or imprisonment imposed by any government authority.
- This includes release from prisons, jails, detention centers, immigration facilities, military detention, or any other form of government-imposed physical confinement at a government-run facility.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-7.0pt73%
- September 18-7.0pt68%
- September 11-11.5pt59%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 413,2K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.6pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80%
- Yes-4.5pt20%
- Volume totale
- 9,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 264K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt49.6%
- October 31+0.5pt29.1%
- September 30+1.0pt12%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 62,7 Mln €
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody??
- Kalshi quota No al 94% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody??
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Ghislaine Maxwell has been released from all forms of government custody and is free to move and act without government-imposed physical restrictions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.