KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 92%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
4,3K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
88.0% / 92.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
5 mag 26, 14:00 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurWill the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Anti-CBDC Act be signed into law in 2026?
FutuurWill the US ban software patents before 2033 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
If legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
- For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
- Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
- Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.
- The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Mercati aperti
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 35 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US ban CBDC in 2026??
- Kalshi quota Yes al 92% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US ban CBDC in 2026??
- Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US ban CBDC in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.