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Données au 9 sept. 2026, 10:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
June 30, 2027 11%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
70,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
3.4% / 3.7%
Écart
0.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
24 juil. 26, 15:51 UTC1 juil. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States.
- Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position.
- Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
- Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Marchés ouverts
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 34,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,2 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 543,5 k €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt90.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt8.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)2%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote June 30, 2027 à 11% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? doit être résolu le 1 juillet 2027.
- Comment Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.