Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
0.7 pts (24h)FedOne-OffPolitiqueUS Politics3mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%
Qualité du marché
63 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,2 k €
Liquidité
20,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
6.3% / 12.0%
Écart
5.7 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
12 janv. 26, 15:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by which date?
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Manifold MarketsKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiJerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
KalshiPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:CNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCC-SPANofficial transcripts from Congressional hearingsthe White HouseJerome Powellthe Office of Management and Budgetthe Department of Justicethe Federal RegisterThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBS
- A "try to fire" includes **any** of the following:
- - The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; - Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; - Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; - The White House officially announces termination; - Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; - Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
- The following do **NOT** qualify:
- - Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; - Expressions of dissatisfaction; - Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; - Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; - Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; - Unsent letters ordering termination
- This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Marchés ouverts
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 35 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.