KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2031 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
5,2 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
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Before Jan 1, 2031Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
22 juil. 26, 15:35 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2031
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?
KalshiWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2031
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? · June 30, 2027 6%
