PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
13,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
4.0% / 6.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
17
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
20 nov. 25, 23:16 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any member of the US Armed Forces die in Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
PolymarketWill a new fighter jet enter service (publicly) in the United States armed forces before 2030
Manifold MarketsIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
PolymarketU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
- A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces.
- This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size).
- Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 95% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.