Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueRussia / UkraineEurope3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 92%
Qualité du marché
73 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,9 k €
Liquidité
25,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
7.0% / 9.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
5 nov. 25, 16:57 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?
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FutuurRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
- An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
