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Données au 8 sept. 2026, 17:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
September 30 28%+1.5pt
Qualité du marché
23 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
389,5 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
- / 1.0%
Commentaires
0
Variation 7j
-15.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
26 août 26, 18:50 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Seize control refers to Somali pirates taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators.
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market.
- Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of damage occured.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 423,4 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 95,4 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote September 30 à 28% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3).