PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Anthropic · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Référence enregistrée
Anthropic 56%
Anthropic 56%Qualité du marché
42 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
502,8 €
Faible liquiditéIntérêt ouvert
281,3 $US
Achat / Vente
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AnthropicÉcart
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Commentaires
0
Variation 7j
-4.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
18 sept. 26, 16:42 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Principaux détenteurs
Chargement des principaux détenteurs
Profondeur du marché · Anthropic
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.