Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 13:56 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleBefore H2 2030 81.4%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 25, 15:41 UTC30 juil. 28, 15:31 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.