KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%En tête parmi 3 options
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
15,2 €
Intérêt ouvert
1,2 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2029Écart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
17 sept. 26, 04:00 UTC31 déc. 27, 18:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2029
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketRègles
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.