Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before Dec 2035 88.7%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 01:48 UTC1 janv. 36, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.
- Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
- Independently verified.
- Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
- Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
- Also submitted to Metaculus.
