Probabilité implicite actuelle
September 18 87%+40.5ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
37 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
905,1 €
Liquidité
1 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
9.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
4 sept. 26, 00:18 UTC18 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsGeneration Starship By 2150
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote September 18 à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date? doit être résolu le 18 octobre 2026.
- Comment Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).