Ce marché s'est résolu: 35%+
Résolu: 12 sept. 2026, 23:29
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
35%+
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
99%
ConsensusAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 13 sept. 2026, 14:55 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Chronologie des Probabilités
35%+97%
40%+0%
45%+3%
50%+4%
55%+2%
35%+Gagné
40%+Perdu
45%+Perdu
50%+Perdu
55%+Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Manifold MarketsCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX
Manifold MarketsElon Musk Giving Shares to the Public (props)
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify.
- Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
