Probabilité implicite actuelle
35%+ 92%+1.3ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
52 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
225,6 €
Liquidité
1,1 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+16.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
11 août 26, 09:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify.
- Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.