Ce marché s'est résolu: September 21
Résolu: 21 sept. 2026, 18:20
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
September 21
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
20%
SurpriseAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 22 sept. 2026, 16:22 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Chronologie des Probabilités
September 195%
September 250%
No release by September 3019%
September 170%
September 280%
September 2219%
September 21100%
September 230%
September 240%
September 270%
September 290%
September 300%
September 21Gagné
On or prior to September 9Perdu
September 10Perdu
September 11Perdu
September 12Perdu
September 13Perdu
September 14Perdu
September 15Perdu
September 16Perdu
September 17Perdu
September 18Perdu
September 19Perdu
September 20Perdu
September 22Perdu
September 23Perdu
September 24Perdu
September 25Perdu
September 26Perdu
September 27Perdu
September 28Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessRègles
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
