Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 02:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète24 juil. 26, 03:01 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketRègles
It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.
- Will the feared come to pass? Will the weights of a model with Mythos-level exploitation abilities (such that anyone with an abliteration tool and a GPU cluster can use them to hack into 2025-era software) be released to the public before the end of 2027?
- (simply scoring high on cyber benchmarks doesn't count; the models must be good at exploiting vulnerabilities in realistic settings to the point where we have stories of the model producing root-granting binaries and such)
- (if the capabilities are latent in the weights but are obfuscated by refusals or surface-level unlearning, then this still resolves YES, although I'd want to wait to see if someone actually elicits them)
- (if the capabilities aren't in the weights (like by gradient routing) but they are present in a private API version of the model, then this resolves NO)
- Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The model must achieve scores close to or higher than Mythos 5 on both ExploitBench and ExploitGym.
