Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 50.5%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète12 août 26, 15:59 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
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KalshiRègles
Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.
- One possible way to release such a model without causing a cyber apocalypse would be to differentially reduce cyber capabilities in the released weights of the model (like Anthropic did that one time for Opus)
- For example they could do this and then withhold the cyber-capable modules from the public https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/modular-pretraining/
- Unlearning has to be robust, but that sounds hard to judge, so I'll err on the side of YES and so if it's unclear whether the unlearning is robust then the market resolves YES, but if the unlearning is obviously not robust (someone publicly restores capabilities, company says they literally just did GradDiff, etc) then the market resolves NO.
- Capabilities have to actually be dangerous.
Marchés ouverts
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- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 51% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.