PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
50%+ 93%+3.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
50%+ 93%+3.0ptQualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
151,1 €
Liquidité
1,7 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
29 sept. 26, 20:04 UTC1 juil. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketWill OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
