PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31, 3%+0.1pt
Qualité du marché
57 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
3,7 €
Liquidité
15,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
2.0% / 3.3%
Écart
1.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
1
Variation 7j
+0.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
13 févr. 26, 00:08 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketWill Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Jimmy Lai released by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote December 31, à 3% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Jimmy Lai released by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Jimmy Lai released by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Jimmy Lai released by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.