PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 98%-0.3pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
17,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
1.7% / 2.8%
Écart
1.1 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
15
Variation 7j
-0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
8 déc. 25, 00:12 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWho will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
KalshiWill the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 98% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.