Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 19:33 UTC6 juin 28, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
WW3: Begins With Ukraine
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketWill Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation before May begins
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a World War III begins in 2026.
- A "world war" applies to armed conflicts between major world powers spanning multiple regions of the globe.
- Resolution requires:
- Direct military conflict between major powers (US, China, Russia, or equivalent) across multiple geographic regions
- Formal declarations of war or equivalent by at least two major powers against each other, or undeniable open hostilities that persist for a sustained period
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour WW3 begins in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand WW3 begins in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- WW3 begins in 2026 doit être résolu le 6 juin 2028.
- Comment WW3 begins in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria