Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
4.5 pts (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East21j
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
September 30 11%-5.5ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
67 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,5 k €
Liquidité
60,6 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
2
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
2 sept. 26, 21:39 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon.