Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.6%
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète27 déc. 23, 12:46 UTC1 janv. 36, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?
Manifold MarketsUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
PolymarketWill a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Same question but 2030: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-3f350ddb8055?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
- Same question but 2040:
- https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-47e71f524701?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2036.
- Comment Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Same question but 2030: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-3f350ddb8055?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg