Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 84.5%
Non 84.5%Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
6 févr. 24, 19:51 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRègles
Minor constituent as in frozen conflict zone/exclave.
- Resolves YES if Ukraine declares war (or special military action, etc) on, annexes, or invades Transnistria, Abkhazia, or Kaliningrad.
- (They are already so with the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimean Republics regardless of your own view and will not count towards market resolution.) Still resolves yes even if they immediately cede the land to someone else, eg Transnistria to Moldova, or Kaliningrad to Poland.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frozen_conflict#/media/File:Geopolitics_South_Russia2.png