Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 52.6%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 mai 23, 22:12 UTC21 avr. 00, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRègles
A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government.
- This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace.
- A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military.
- The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.