Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
One-OffGéopolitiqueCriminalité et justicePolitique3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 75.4%
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Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète30 nov. 23, 11:11 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
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So far there have been 2 assassinations (Idriss Déby of Chad, Jovenel Moïse of Haiti).
- Resolves according to this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_and_executed_heads_of_state_and_government
- Executions count too, if it ends up on this article it counts.
- Only incumbent heads of state, so Shinzo Abe's assassination doesn't count.
- If the wikipedia list is deleted or has the criteria for inclusion significantly changed, resolves according to the same guidelines it has at market creation (deaths of incumbent heads of government/state from execution/assassination) as faithfully as possible according to my judgement.
- I will not bet.