Will the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100?
One-OffScienceManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 81.5%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète24 avr. 26, 11:49 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the Blue Whale (Balaenoptera musculus) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) become extinct in the current century?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the North Atlantic Right Whale.
- The species is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020).
- As of 2025 the wild population counted about 380 individuals, and there were no captive individuals.
- The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier.
- It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct.
- The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the species persists.