Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 72%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète11 juin 25, 23:08 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post the void is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt3%
- September 30+0.1pt0%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 750,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 30 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.0pt69%
- No31%
- Volume total
- 311,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 k €
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before 2027+17.0pt95%
- before December+20.0pt90%
- before November+30.0pt86%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,9 k €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 72% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.