Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.1%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète17 juin 26, 21:25 UTC2 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what counts as a military attack for resolution purposes:
- Counts (YES): Limited drone or missile strike, sustained bombing, full invasion
- Does NOT count (NO): Covert operatives conducting sabotage/assassination/kidnapping, or arming/directing a proxy group — unless done overtly under the US banner, or they lead to open war
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
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+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 423,4 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
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- 35,3 M €
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections? doit être résolu le 2 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.