Will Trump attack Cuba by the end of his term?
Politique américaineOne-OffGéopolitiqueAmérique latine2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.9%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
17 mars 26, 02:03 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump make Cuba an American Territory?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Criteria of resolution: This market resolves YES if US armed forces conduct a publicly acknowledged military operation involving kinetic force in Cuba’s sovereign territory, meaning Cuban land, territorial sea, or national airspace.
- For this market, “US armed forces” includes the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard.
- Official U.S. sources describe territorial sea and the airspace above it as part of a state’s territory, and the standard breadth is up to 12 nautical miles.
- This market resolves NO otherwise.
- Sanctions, embargoes, cyber operations, espionage, covert actions not publicly acknowledged, or threats without actual use of force.
- Routine activity at Guantánamo Bay that does not involve kinetic force directed into Cuban sovereign territory.
