Where will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
PolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineLatin AmericaMiddle EastGéopolitiqueIA3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIran 100%En tête parmi 40 options
Prévisionnistes
265
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+1.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
6 janv. 26, 11:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsF1 World Drivers’ Champion 2026 (Add your answers)
Manifold MarketsIsraeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
###Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026.
- Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action.
- The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
- For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone.
- Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.
