When, where or how will Trump die?
PolitiqueOne-OffSanté et médecinePolitique américaineÉlectionIAGéopolitique18a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
On Earth 99%En tête parmi 88 options
On Earth 99%Prévisionnistes
346
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète4 janv. 25, 15:15 UTC1 janv. 45, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old.
- He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history.
- According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources.
- If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.
- The market will resolve N/A if: