Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2037 82.8%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
72
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-2.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète30 août 25, 01:51 UTC22 janv. 36, 00:37 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRègles
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Donald Trump die? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2037 à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Donald Trump die? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Donald Trump die? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2036.
- Comment When will Donald Trump die? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a cumulative probability market.