Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Politique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJoe Biden 46.4%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+6.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète18 juin 24, 13:00 UTC19 janv. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
Manifold MarketsWill Aella die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Johnson die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
