Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
77
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 42 minutes
4 mai 25, 20:03 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Will Donald Trump die during his term?
- For the purposes of this question, this closes on January 20, 2029 regardless of whether Trump has done something to extend his term, postpone elections, etc… Cause of death does not matter, if he’s dead he’s dead.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump die during his term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump die during his term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump die during his term? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will Donald Trump die during his term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will Donald Trump die during his term?