Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 23:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 84%
Prévisionnistes
978
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 52 minutes
En retard12 nov. 24, 19:10 UTC19 janv. 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
