Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
969
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
12 nov. 24, 19:10 UTC19 janv. 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRègles
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ? doit être résolu le 19 janvier 2029.
- Comment Donald Trump mourra-t-il ou tombera-t-il gravement malade avant la fin de son mandat ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.