Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 10:17 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is pronounced dead by a reputable news organization (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, New York Times) on or before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946.
- This market concerns his vital status over the specified timeframe ending January 1, 2027.
- This description was generated by AI.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump Die before 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump Die before 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump Die before 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Donald Trump Die before 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria