Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91%
Prévisionnistes
45
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 26, 23:38 UTC31 déc. 26, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.
- Resolves YES if both die.
- Resolves NO if neither do.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.