Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète15 janv. 25, 15:23 UTC22 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647
- News coverage: https://theconversation.com/huge-if-true-dark-energy-doesnt-exist-claims-new-study-on-supernovas-246674 https://www.thequantumcat.space/p/the-week-in-space-and-physics-timescapes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoDPPuhASGw
- By 2030, will a majority of cosmologists assign more than a 30% credence to a Timescape style theory?
- By Timescape style, I mean: - Rejecting the cosmological constant or dark energy - Rejecting the cosmological principle
- It should be pretty clear but if not I'll try to email some people, and for good beasure I won't bet on this market
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647