Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
One-OffGéopolitiqueRussie / Ukraine3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90%
Non 90%Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 23, 12:13 UTC1 janv. 30, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
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Manifold MarketsWill Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRègles
For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.
- If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
- If Crimea became an independent country, that would.