Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète12 sept. 23, 10:06 UTC1 janv. 31, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Manifold MarketsWill the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.