Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète12 sept. 23, 10:06 UTC1 janv. 31, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA build an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurRègles
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
