Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleWill not happen by the end of 2040 37.4%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète17 nov. 23, 10:12 UTC31 déc. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.
- This will resolve to the first year in which a non-experimental, grid-scale reactor will be providing power (over 100 MWe) to the national grid for at least a week continuously.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Will not happen by the end of 2040 à 37% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2040.
- Comment Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.