Le conflit israélo-Hamas sera-t-il décrit comme un génocide dans 10 ans (2034) ?
One-OffMiddle East7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 62%
Prévisionnistes
87
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète15 janv. 24, 02:14 UTC2 janv. 34, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRègles
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.
- Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count.
- But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
- Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments.
- For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes.
- If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 312,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 153,3 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Le conflit israélo-Hamas sera-t-il décrit comme un génocide dans 10 ans (2034) ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 62% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Le conflit israélo-Hamas sera-t-il décrit comme un génocide dans 10 ans (2034) ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Le conflit israélo-Hamas sera-t-il décrit comme un génocide dans 10 ans (2034) ? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2034.
- Comment Le conflit israélo-Hamas sera-t-il décrit comme un génocide dans 10 ans (2034) ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.