Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.8%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète21 oct. 25, 00:24 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
Manifold MarketsBy when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?
Manifold MarketsWill the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on January 1, 2030, the English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" (or any successor article primarily covering the same events) prominently uses the term "genocide" to describe Israel's genocide in Gaza.
- This includes its use in the article's title, its lead section, or a dedicated infobox within the article.
- The resolution will be determined by examining the live version of the article on en.wikipedia.org at 12:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2030.
- If the article is unavailable or significantly altered, an archived version from archive.org as close as possible to the resolution date will be used.
- If no such article exists, or if the term "genocide" is not prominently used to describe Israel's actions in Gaza as per the criteria above, the market will resolve to "No."
