Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
GéopolitiqueOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.6%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 23, 00:35 UTC2 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
