Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 64%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 23, 06:25 UTC31 déc. 23, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kim Ju Ae be formally designated as the heir to Kim Jong Un in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKim Jong-Un still Supreme Leader of North Korea through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?
KalshiRègles
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Ju-ae
- Yes if multiple credible media outlets report that Kim Ju-ae has become the leader or de facto leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un.
- No if multiple credibe media outlets report that someone other than Kim Ju-ae has become the leader or de facto leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un.
- Resolve N/A otherwise.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 423,4 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 95,4 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2123.
- Comment Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Ju-ae