Will Kim Ju Ae be formally designated as the heir to Kim Jong Un in 2026?
One-OffPolitiqueGéopolitique2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète12 févr. 26, 20:15 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un?
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FutuurWill Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Requires a formal announcement from North Korean government.
- Will resolve based on a consensus of popular reporting: not just that intelligence analysis or reading between the lines indicates Kim Ju Ae as the likely successor, but reporting indicating that North Korea has formally designated Kim Ju Ae as the next leader after Kim Jong Un.
- Resolves when this occurs, even if later in the year, this is changed or undone.
- If her name is different than Kim Ju Ae, but we're still referring to the 12-14 year old daughter of Kim Jong Un (his ~probably second oldest child), then that's fine, given that her name is uncertain at the moment.
- I will not bet on this market, so as to remain unbiased as to what constitutes a formal announcement of her position as heir.
