Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:03 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 88%
Prévisionnistes
62
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète12 févr. 26, 06:13 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
PolymarketWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill USA change Iran regime
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
- This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it.
- Qualifying scenarios may include:
- Military coup
- Voluntary abdication of power
- Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority