If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 mai 26, 23:11 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.