Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Moyen-OrientGéopolitiqueOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète15 juin 25, 01:06 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
PolymarketWill Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsWill the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
KalshiRègles
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).