Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Middle EastGéopolitiqueOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète15 juin 25, 01:06 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).
Marchés ouverts
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
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- Yes-0.1pt2%
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- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
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- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.